Who Will Win 'Pahalgam War'? India, America, China, in That Order
Can we afford a (mis?)adventure against Pakistan, especially when we frame it largely in Hindu vs Muslim terms?
By: RAGHAV BAHL
WhatsApp chat groups are perhaps the most versatile social innovations of the 21st century. They can become anything, take any form. A family album. A family crib group against elitist, arrogant cousins. A daily satsang (religious gathering). A political protest or propaganda group. A “joke club” of septuagenarian schoolmates or golf buddies.
But not all groups are frivolous or dark. Some acquire the heft of a quickie think tank. Say, a batch of “Indian Ivy Leaguers,” reconnecting four decades since leaving college. The intellectual diversity, energy, and depth can be awesome. Global bankers. Retired IAS/IFS/IRS administrators. Tech veterans. Professors. Entrepreneurs. Stock market wizards. Journalists. Policy wonks. United Nations advisors. Civil society activists. Retired Olympians. Artistes.
A hundred lives, criss-crossing continents, straddling forty years, from Ludhiana to Lesotho, from Australia to Oregon. Four thousand person-years of knowledge and experience, seamlessly on an instant electronic exchange, unbound by distance, time, or geography.
So, the fire hose of insights is astonishingly illuminating. Hear the person who negotiated the Indus Waters Treaty tell you what its suspension means in the gorges of Kashmir or the plains of Pakistan’s Punjab. Listen to a Chicago-based bond trader tell you what tariffs could do to US treasuries. Lean on a veteran cricketer/writer to read the odds-on IPL favourite this season. The cornucopia of organic, native, lived wisdom freely ruminating on such WhatsApp chat groups is unmatched and unmatchable.
I had an especially evocative exchange this morning on my college eco-batchmates’ group. I will share the messages as they popped up, rat-a-tat, to keep it raw and real. Remember these WhatsApp posts are put out instinctively and on-the-trot, without deep research or enquiry. They spring from the writer’s knowledge gathered over decades, rather than via any specific validation. It’s instinctive and therefore, forceful.
Global Economist (Liberal): Raghav, have you written anything on how the India-China relationship is likely to emerge? Or on the evolving US-India relationship?
Me: The situation since 20 January has been so volatile and unprecedented that it would have been naive to project anything until a definite direction became visible. And just when the Trump/America crisis seemed to be settling a tad, we had Pahalgam, which has really thrown the whole China-Pak-India equation into the mother of all uncertainties.
There is bound to be a fierce and (hopefully) brief “war” between India and Pakistan. And China will have to do some truly tightrope diplomacy—militarily, it supports Pakistan, but economically, it is keen to do deals with India. This will really test President Xi.
So, to prognosticate any future outcome right now would be akin to building a foundation on jelly. Better to watch and wait it out a bit.
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