The Question Is... Were Haryana Election Results Manipulated? We Answer Through Data
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Dear Reader,
The BJP's surprise win in recent Assembly elections in Haryana proved every exit poll wrong. The Congress has "refused to accept" the verdict and has filed complaints related to EVMs in a number of constituencies. This is a big deal because it is the first time that a major national party is disputing the legitimacy of an entire verdict.
After we were done with our entire coverage on result day, there were a number of questions that we were grappling with in the newsroom.
What explains this verdict?
Is it even possible that the election was rigged, as the Congress is claiming?
The only way of answering these questions is through data.
We decided to compare the data from Haryana for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly election results — and see if a pattern emerges.
It wasn't easy as the Election Commission has yet to put out the Assembly segment-wise data for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on its website. We had to arrange for it through a source and compile the entire data set manually.
This is what we found.
First, there seems to have been a tacit understanding between the BJP and the alliance of three smaller parties — INLD, BSP, and Haryana Lokhit Party. We are making this claim with complete seriousness — and it is entirely based on data.
Second, the Congress seems to have lost at least eight seats due to rebels within its own ranks. In half of these seats, however, the issue is much bigger than just rebellion — and there are questions that the Congress leadership needs to examine.
Now, both these points actually indicate that the Congress' defeat and the BJP's win is plausible. In this context, also read the article by Deepanshu Mohan and his team on how the Congress lost a large number of seats due to Independent candidates and smaller parties.
That is another data point that shocked us. It turns out that in a large number of seats, the Congress witnessed a massive decline in votes between the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections. In about 15 seats, the Congress lost as many as a third of its voters from the Lok Sabha elections. In 28 seats, it lost at least one-fifth of its voters.
This is a massive decline to have taken place in a space of just five months.
The question is... What could be the reason behind this? Does it mean that the Congress' claims of rigging are true? Or has the party suffered internal sabotage? Or did one particular social group move away from the Congress?
I reiterate — we have tried to answer these questions purely on the basis of data and inputs from the ground. We haven't made any claims we can't prove.
In the past, we have carried out in-depth investigations on EVMs and Electoral Bonds, which have held the Election Commission and political parties to account. All of these wouldn't have been possible without your support. Become a member* and help us do more in-depth data stories.
As far as electoral institutions are concerned, you can trust us to ask the right questions.
That's all for now. Stay tuned for the next part of our data series on the Haryana elections.
Thank you,
ADITYA MENON
Editor, Politics
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